Sometimes the most valuable thing we can tell a client is: not yet

TWO MARKETS. TWO REPORTS. ONE RECOMMENDATION.

Two Dudes is a New Zealand men’s grooming brand. Skincare, haircare, body wash, deodorant, with a strong domestic presence, VC backing, and real ambitions to take the range international. Amazon was the obvious next channel. The question wasn’t whether the market was big enough. The question was whether the economics stacked up, which products to lead with, and whether the timing was right.

Two Dudes partnered with us in April 2024 to run a Marketplace Feasibility across both Australia and the United States. Not to launch. To find out whether to.

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MARKETPLACE FEASIBILITY

Market sizing by category

Mapped revenue across nine product categories on both marketplaces to identify where the real volume and margin opportunity was. The products with the most demand aren't always the products with the best margin.

Competitor analysis

Interrogated the brands winning in each sub-category: pricing, review counts, content quality, positioning. We identified where credibility could be built quickly versus where Two Dudes would be competing against well-resourced incumbents from day one.

Product prioritisation

Not every category in the range had the same opportunity on Amazon. We identified which products to lead with based on margin, competitive intensity and fit with the brand’s positioning, and which to hold back until there was more equity on the platform to build from.

Pricing strategy

We set price points and pack configurations for launch, balancing conversion of first-time buyers with brand familiarity against unit economics.

Three-scenario profitability models

Built out conservative, moderate and aggressive scenarios across 12-to-24-month time periods. Factoring in ad spend, third-party logistics (3PL) costs, inbound freight and Noria management fees. Then, consolidated our findings into detailed reports to be presented directly to the board and investors.

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Our Read

The US findings were sobering. A $470M category with strong demand, but the unit economics didn’t hold up across any of the three scenarios for the first 12 to 18 months. Margins were thin, ad costs were heavy, and the cost to build review equity against the established players was significant. The AU market was smaller but cleaner. A more accessible runway with less competitive pressure, though limited in absolute revenue terms.

We laid it out. AU could serve as a useful steppingstone, building review equity and market presence ahead of a US launch, rather than needing to stand alone as a profitable channel from day one. And if the timing or capital commitment wasn’t right, managing it in-house initially was a legitimate option worth considering.